Turkish Elections

Presidential Elections (August 2014)

1- Turkish presidential elections took place on August 10, 2014. The winner needs to receive over 50 percent of votes to get elected. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round,  two candidates receiving most votes will compete in the second round.

2-According to the Turkish constitution, presidential candidates need to be 40 years of age or older, college graduate, qualified to be a member of parliament (but not necessarily a current member). In addition, for an individual to run in the contest, at least 20 members of parliament need to petition on his or her behalf. Given the party structure and discipline in Turkey, it is expected that every major party will nominate a presidential candidate; thus, no more than 4 nominees (even less in the case of a joint candidate) will compete in the elections.

3- Presidential candidates are Prime Minister Erdogan of the AKP, Mr. Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu (former secretary general of Organization for Islamic Cooperation), and Mr. Selahattin Demirtas (Co-Chairman of Peoples’ Democracy Party – HDP). If Mr. Erdogan gets elected, then the ruling AKP, which still holds the majority in the parliament, will need to select his replacement as the chairman of the party and prime minister. Mr. Erdogan’s win may also trigger early parliamentary elections, which is normally scheduled for June 2015. If Mr. Erdogan loses, he will still keep his current position. There is no constitutional need for Mr. Erdogan to resign his office to run for presidency.

Campaign Finance (as of 8/3/2014)

CANDIDATE DONATION AMOUNT
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 24.337.697 TRY
Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu 2.130.922 TRY
Selahattin Demirtaş 361.411 TRY

Election Results (Aug 10, 2014)

CANDIDATE  
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 51.8 %
Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu 38.4 %
Selahattin Demirtaş 9.8 %

 

Poll Results

(In most polls below, undecided voters are distributed according to the leanings by polling companies)

DATE POLL ERDOGAN IHSANOGLU DEMIRTAS
8/78/6

8/6

8/5

8/1

8/1

7/31

7/30

7/30

7/29

7/25

7/23

7/22

7/21

7/17

7/17

7/15

7/14

7/13

7/12

7/8

7/7

7/7

7/4

7/3

6/24

6/23

GEZICIPOLLMARK

A&G

ANAR

CHP

A&G

PARADIGMA

SONAR

KONDA

ORC

ANAR

TUSIAR

MAK

GEZICI

SAD

ANDY-AR

POLLMARK

CHP

ANAR

ORC

KONSENSUS

LRC

METROPOLL

GEZICI

CHP

SONAR

ORC

5556

55

55

<50

55

48

53

55

54

54

54

56

53

53

55

54

39

55

54

58

47

42

43

46

52

54

3434

33

36

<50

37

40

38

38

38

37

38

37

38

38

34

38

38

38

37

30

43

33

48

38

40

39

109

11

8

8

10

8

7

7

7

3

6

8

9

9

7

8

8

11

4

6

7

7

7

6

 

Who should succeed Prime Minister Erdogan if he  gets elected as president?

DATE
July 17

June 24

June 9

May 5
May 2
April 29
POLL  
ANDY-AR

KONSENSUS

MPOLL

OPTIMAR
TUSIVAR
MAK
DAVUTOGLU
1

12

-

5
12
19
GUL
76

37

13

15
34
17
ARINC
7

17

12

3
19
16
KURTULMUS
6

10

5

3
15
15
YILDIRIM
2

3

-

-
-
13

 

Parties and nominees  

Who should be the AKP nominee? (among AKP supporters)
DATE  
May 5
May 2
April 29
Feb 2
POLL 
OPTIMAR
TUSIVAR
MAK
GEZICI
GUL
39
33
12
29
ERDOGAN
49
58
70
20
DAVUTOGLU
-
-
6
28
ARINC
-
3
4
12
Who should be the CHP nominee? (among CHP supporters)
DATE  
May 5
May 2
April 29
April 25
POLL  
OPTIMAR
TUSIVAR
MAK
ORC
KILICDAROGLU
13
5
47
13
BAYKAL
6
8
17
-
BUYUKERSEN
-
4
7
-
BASBUG
28
46
5
7
Who should be the MHP nominee? (among MHP supporters)
DATE  
May 5
May 2
April 29
April 25
POLL  
OPTIMAR
TUSIVAR
MAK
ORC
BAHCELI
25
9
20
31
AKSENER
17
36
34
32
HALACOGLU
-
-
14
-
VURAL
-
-
10
-

 Note: CHP and MHP nominated Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu


Past Election Results

2009 Local Elections

AKP 
38.4
CHP  
23.0
MHP  
15.9
DTP 
5.7
OTHER
17.0

2011 Parliamentary Elections

AKP
49.8
CHP 
25.9
MHP 
13.1
BDP/IND 
6.5
OTHER
14.7

2014 Local Elections

AKP
45.2
CHP 
28.8
MHP 
15.2
BDP/HDP 
5.8
OTHER
5.0

Maps

 By Talha Oz, George Mason University

Click image for larger view

 TE1

TE2

TE3

TE4

TE5  

TE6

TE7

Poll Results

2014 Local Elections (March 30)

DATE 

March 27

March 18

March 17

March 12

March 8

March 5

March 5

Feb 14
Feb 12
Feb 11
Feb 7
Feb 6
Feb 4
Feb 4
Feb 3
Feb 2
Feb 1
Jan 31
Jan 28
Jan 27
Jan 16
Jan 10
Jan 8
POLL 
GEZICI

ANDY-AR

Anonymous

ORC

ANAR

KONDA

Metropoll

GEZICI
OPTIMAR
DI-EN
DENGE
ORC
AG
ANDY-AR
CIHAN
GEZICI
KONSENSUS
KONDA
GENAR
METROPOLL
CUMHURIYET
DENGE
SONAR
AKP
46.2

40.7

29.7

45.7

46.9

49.4

41.7

37.6
44.8
36.8
48.5
45.0
47.0
43.5
36.4
39.9
41.7
47.7
48.8
43.2
35.5
47.5
42.3
CHP
27.2

31.2

33.2

28.3

30.1

21.8

30.9

31.3
29.3
26.4
29.7
29.3
28.0
29.3
28.8
31.3
29.5
28.2
28.0
28.1
26.7
28.9
29.8
MHP
15.5

17.2

21.3

16.0

14.3

15.8

16.7

20.6
14.2
18.3
14.1
15.1
14.0
13.6
20.5
19.2
15.4
14.4
13.0
15.0
15.1
12.7
18.7
BDP
7.1

6.8

7.6

6.0

5.8

8.3

8.3

7.6
5.6
6.4
5.5
6.2
9.0
6.5
7.4
7.8
6.5
5.9
6.5
9.7
7.6
7.1
5.6
OTHER
4.0

4.0

8.2

4.0

2.9

4.7

2.4

2.7
4.9
10.2
1.9
4.4
2.0
5.1
6.9
1.8
6.9
3.7
3.7
4.0
15.1
3.6
3.6

Major Cities

Istanbul

DATE  
March 18

March 18

March 18

March 17

March 12

Feb 13
Feb 11
Feb 10
Jan 24
Jan 17
Jan 9
Jan 3
POLL 
ANDY-AR

KONSENSUS

SONAR

Anonymous

GEZICI

DENGE
DI-EN
MAK
SONAR
GEZICI
KONDA
ORC
LEADING PARTY
AKP

AKP

AKP

CHP

AKP

AKP
AKP
AKP
CHP
AKP
AKP
AKP
SPREAD
2.2

3.6

4.7

1.9

6.3

14.0
7.4
7.0
0.3
8.8
17.7
9.1

Ankara

DATE 
March 19

March 18

March 18

March 18

March 17

March 11

Feb 11
Feb 10
Jan 17
Jan 3
POLL 
OPTIMAR

ANDY-AR

KONSENSUS

SONAR

Anonymous

GEZICI

DI-EN
MAK
GEZICI
ORC
LEADING PARTY
CHP

CHP

CHP

AKP

CHP

AKP

AKP
AKP
AKP
AKP
SPREAD
0.3

0.4

1.8

6.3

7.6

5.1

5.8
9.0
7.2
13.4

Izmir

DATE  
March 18

March 18

March 18

Feb 11
Jan 17
Jan 8
POLL  
ANDY-AR

KONSENSUS

SONAR

DI-EN
GEZICI
ORC
LEADING PARTY
CHP

CHP

CHP

CHP
CHP
CHP
SPREAD
19.8

15.6

19.7

6.1
6.9
5.2